Author Topic: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)  (Read 1056 times)

Kevin

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A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« on: December 23, 2016, 08:26:03 pm »
Here is a visualization of a century-long PIOMAS ice model run using reanalysis (ERA 20c) forcing. This is very much an ongoing experiment. We will be using the sea-ice observations gathered over the course of Old Weather (including RN) to get an idea how realistically the model is performing.

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/tests/piomas-20c



PIOMAS vs. thickness observations from MAUD drift of 1922-23. One indicator we're near the ballpark.



added image for Kevin - Randi
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 12:26:35 am by Randi »

AvastMH

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2016, 09:15:02 pm »
That is an amazing piece of graphics Kevin. I'm so glad that we're working on this project - just hope we're not too late  :-\

Caro

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2016, 09:47:27 pm »
Thanks Kevin.
This project really is worth the effort.
Glad to see the RN logs making a contribution also.

studentforever

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2016, 07:58:48 am »
Another addition to the wall of 'This is important - please take notice'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

AvastMH

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2016, 11:41:32 pm »
'Dr Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford's Environmental Change Institute'

That's Fredi at work  :o :D  She works with Myles Allen who is leading Climatepredict.net (that lots of us do on BOINC).

It's all so depressing  :(

Kevin

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2017, 09:09:54 pm »
Here is the daily resolution PIOMAS run, 1901-1910. Don't worry about the strange looking url - its verified. The online GIF animation tool generates them automatically (and possibly irreverently).

https://gfycat.com/CheapFloweryDorking

In due course we can plot all the daily positions of our ships in these model animations. This is an early attempt at using reanalyses to drive a sea-ice model, so results may vary as they say. But how cool will it be to see our ships in action?

Randi

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2017, 09:11:47 pm »
 ;D

AvastMH

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2017, 09:38:48 pm »
It sure would be cool  8) 8) ;D

Danny252

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2017, 01:43:44 pm »
Why is it that the sea ice reaches the 70th parallel (and often even further) along the Canadian and Siberian coasts most winters, but barely squeezes past the 80th parallel in the direction of Scandinavia? Is it different weather patterns, ocean currents, or simply the lack of any land?

Kevin

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2017, 09:15:22 pm »
I think you mean the embayment evident here https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ where the sea north of Scandinavia remains ice-free into the winter? You are right, this is caused by warm ocean currents flowing into the Barents Sea from the Atlantic. Also why Murmansk is such an important port for Russia, as it provides direct year-round access to the world ocean.

AvastMH

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2017, 10:42:46 pm »
Sounds like the same current that allows Scotland to have subtropical gardens?  :D



Randi

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Re: A century of sea-ice past (modeled)
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2017, 01:16:53 am »
Frightening.